DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/17 11:40
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed
Row crops are firmer at midday, wheat mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is lower at midday with the Dow down 90 points. The
interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 15 points lower.
Energies are higher with crude 1.20 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs
leading. Precious metals are higher with gold up $9.80.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with short profit taking ahead
of the weekend. We are still down on the week and it appears we will close with
a new weekly low so position squaring could give us some volatility near the
close this afternoon. Ethanol margins remain at stable with crude staying near
the upper end of the range, and ethanol futures higher. Basis and carry has
shown further improvement with carry trading below 12 cents this morning.
Remain harvest is struggling with poor drying conditions this week, but we are
near the end overall. On the December chart support is at the new low at $3.36
1/2. Resistance is at the $3.49 1/2 50-day moving then the $3.58 six-week high.
Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to
consolidate above the $9.76 area this morning. Meal is 4.00 to 5.00 higher, and
oil is 15 to 25 points lower. South American weather looks to continue working
drier in Argentina in the near term, but major issues remain very limited for
now. Export business has been quiet for the bulk of November on the daily wire.
On the January chart, trade is trying to close above the 100-day at $9.76 going
into the weekend with the September low of $9.60 the next notable support with
many chart analysts mentioning the $9.50 level. Trade is testing the 200-day at
$9.79 at midday, and a close above the 100 and 200-day going into the weekend
would likely encourage some short covering Sunday night.
Wheat trade is mixed with spring wheat flat to 2 cents lower and winter
wheat 3 to 5 cents higher at midday. Dryness is a concern, which is limiting
downside on the winter wheat contracts, but that hasn't translated into more
aggressive buying yet. The Russian ruble weakness recently helps Russian
competitiveness on the world market, with business to the Middle East marked by
continued steady cash trade. Basis has firmed a bit on the plains in recent
days but overall remains wide. On the December Kansas City support is the $4.13
1/2 low, with the 10-day and 20-day at $4.25, as resistance this afternoon.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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