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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/17 12:02

   Hog Futures Give Back Early Gains Midday Friday

   The aggressive early support seen across lean hog futures has allowed for 
increased market uncertainty through the complex. Mixed trade is holding in 
narrow ranges across hog futures. Cattle markets continue to remain sharply 
lower in feeder cattle, limiting any interest from developing in live cattle 
trade. 

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS: 

   Aggressive pressure continues to hold across feeder cattle trade. This may 
spark additional buyer interest in the market, late in the session, but buyers 
seem to be willing to hold out until next week at this point. Lean hog futures 
are mixed at midday after giving back early gains which gave increased promise 
to the market. The overall light trade volume in the market is a major draw for 
the hog complex. Corn prices are higher in light trade. December corn futures 
are 4 cents per bushel higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow 
Jones is 87 points lower while Nasdaq is up 2 points.

   LIVE CATTLE:

   Losses in live cattle futures have remained sluggish with traders focusing 
on the sharp triple-digit losses in the feeder cattle market. This is due 
mostly to the overall lack of trade activity at the end of the week. With no 
significant direction detected in cash markets late in the week, traders are 
focusing on outside market shifts. This could spark additional long-term market 
direction through the complex. Cash cattle trade appears to be done for the 
week with no active bids developing through the morning. The moderate to active 
trade seen earlier in the week $2 to $4 per cwt lower than last week's levels 
has met most packer's needs for now. It is still possible that a few cleanup 
sales may develop late in the day, but with the downward pressure in prices, 
most feeders are expected to hold off until next week. Beef cut-outs at midday 
are mixed, $1.04 higher (select) and down $1.68 per cwt (choice) with moderate 
movement of 76 total loads reported (34 loads of choice cuts, 22 loads of 
select cuts, 9 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef). 

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Sharp losses have quickly flooded into the market Friday morning with 
triple-digit pressure developing just after opening bell. This has sparked 
additional long term pressure to develop through the complex. Traders are 
holding $1.50 to $1.70 per cwt losses as traders continue to shift lower and 
liquidate positions at the end of the week. The overall concern that strong 
pressure may continue through the Thanksgiving season is bringing additional 
sellers to the market.  

   LEAN HOGS:

   Light trade has continued to be seen through the morning Friday. This is 
limiting overall market direction following a pull back from sharp triple digit 
gains seen early in the trading day. Nearby contracts continue to hold a narrow 
gain of 10 to 30 cents per cwt while deferred futures are trading lower in the 
same price ranges. Sluggish market activity is expected to be seen through the 
end of the session, although the inability to hold early support is going to be 
viewed as generally bearish for the market. Cash prices on the direct morning 
reports are unavailable at this time. The National Pork Plant Report posted 133 
loads selling with cutout values falling $0.07 per cwt. Lean hog index for 
11/15 is at $69.97 down $0.40 with a projected two-day index of $65.42, down 
$0.55.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


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