DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/12 12:00
Cattle Contracts Trade Lower, Lean Hog Contracts Look Higher
Trump's positive remarks of a fruitful outcome about the phase one trade
agreement has the lean hog complex ready to trade higher.
By ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle contracts have stepped aside while the lean hog complex looks to take
the show. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is
down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 64.02 points and NASDAQ is
up 4.91 points.
Wednesday's excitement has dried up and moved over to the lean hog market
with live cattle and feeder cattle contracts to trade lower. December live
cattle are down $0.37 at $120.20, February feeder cattle are down $0.40 at
$124.92 and April live cattle are up $0.12 at $126.00. The cash market remains
quiet as packers want to see if the board is going to dip any lower, which may
pull the country's psychology down as well. Meanwhile, feeders are holding
their breath hoping that the board perks up by Friday. A few bids have popped
up in Texas and Kansas at $118, lower than last week's weighted average and
lower than asking prices.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.05 ($216.61) and select down
$0.48 ($203.24) with a movement of 114 loads (86.15 loads of choice, 13.47
loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 14.03 loads of ground beef).
Feeder cattle contracts continue to trade sideways, then slightly up, then
they dip lower. Realistically this may be the majority of the trade the next
couple of weeks until 2020 offers new opportunity. January feeder cattle are
down $0.67 at $142.10, March feeders are down $0.65 at $143.02 and April
feeders are down $0.30 at $145.17. Trading slightly higher than the 100-day
moving average ($141.40), but still traipsing lower than the 40-day moving
It appears the back and forth woes of hearing about the phase one trade
agreement will never end. Though the lean hog market has heard about all it can
take from the undecisive nature of the arrangement, President Trump tweeted
Thursday morning, "Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it
and so do we!" Regardless if this is the final leg of the race before the
finish line is reached or not, the lean hog complex took it for it was worth
and ran with the excitement Thursday morning. December lean hogs are up $0.17
at $60.87, February lean hogs are up $1.17 at $68.90 and April lean hogs are up
$0.52 at $74.77.
The projected lean hog index for 12/11/19 is up $0.26 at $59.72, and the
actual lean hog index for 12/10/19 is up $0.99 at $59.46. Hog prices are higher
on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.52 with a weighted average of
$48.57, ranging from $42.00 to $49.75 on 5,836 hogs sold and a five-day rolling
average of $47.43. Pork cutouts total 145.36 loads with 123.83 loads of pork
cuts and 21.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.53 at $81.66.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
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